News - 2018 10

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2018 10

Emerging markets have significantly underperformed developed markets this year, but just because EM is cheap on a relative basis doesn’t mean now is the time to buy. So far this year Turkish equities are down 50%, Argentinian equities are down 50% and Chinese equities are down 20%. It is important to examine the causes of EM weakness to determine whether or not current conditions are likely to persist. The two most apparent reasons for EM weakness are dollar strength (albeit modest so far) and China slowing.

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Just a few weeks ago the price of Arabica Coffee Futures plunged to a 12-year low, the bear market in coffee has been relentless, and it is decision time for producers. Many producers have been selling at a loss due to persistently low prices, some farmers have even stopped planting coffee beans altogether and switched to coca. Recently, the World Coffee Producers Forum met in Mexico City to address what many members consider to be a crisis in the coffee market.

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The US Treasury Bond bull market has persisted for more than three decades since Paul Volcker crushed inflation by hiking the Fed Funds Rate to over 15% in the 1980s, and this longstanding trend looks set to continue.

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25 Oct

Natural Gas – bundle up

Categories: Daily Comments

A number of leading meteorologists are predicting a colder than average winter for 2018-19, and if the sub-arctic temperatures and snow storms of recent years return to parts of Europe and North America natural gas prices may be set for a strong rally.

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